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* Sources *
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/employment-trends-index/index.cfm
March 2026 Jobs Report: A Bumpy Road and a Moving Finish Line
https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Challenger-Report-March-2026-1.pdf
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202602-summary.htm
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260596.pdf
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/march-jobs-report-unemployment-dfd5d52f
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026619
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/bls-investigation-challenges-yes-rigged-data-no
https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm
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Late final week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics launched its month-to-month jobs report with some actually excellent news…
We had added an additional 178,000 jobs within the month earlier than and unemployment had fallen by a modest .1%…
But uhhh… this raised the plain query… of how may that presumably be true?
Consumer sentiment has hit its lowest degree for the reason that knowledge was first collected (beating out the Height of Covid, the Global Financial Crisis and even the oil shock of the late 70s)
The convention board survey discovered that the very best variety of shoppers ever thought-about jobs “hard to get”
and Indeed’s knowledge staff discovered that total hiring was in a particularly defensive posture amongst the businesses they service.
Now maybe all of those “sentiments” could possibly be written off as dangerous vibes amongst individuals who don’t really respect how sizzling this Economy is… besides that, on high of all of this, there may be the mountain of knowledge that simply straight up contradicts this quantity.
In March alone (after we apparently “added” 178,000 new jobs)
Companies introduced over 60,000 job cuts,
The Fed’s inner knowledge confirmed low hiring
Weekly unemployment claims elevated to 219,000
And in the very same report from the BLS themselves they famous that the labor drive had shrunk by 396,000.
So simply to make issues clear, unemployment claims rose, corporations minimize jobs, the labor drive shrunk… and but the official jobs determine went… up…
The total belief in these figures has been waning for a while now as huge revisions grow to be commonplace and we swing between huge good points and large losses each single month.
Even right here on this channel I’ve spent extra time than I wish to admit methodically reverse engineering the statistical technicalities that these authorities departments use to provide their numbers… as a result of properly… it’s actually vital to our on a regular basis lives…
But on this case, simply primary arithmetic ought to show that… one thing goes mistaken right here… both some mixture of those numbers are simply plain mistaken, or they’re so un-intuative or unreliable that they might as properly be disregarded completely…
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